There’s this feeling that the United States is dying from within through our self-destructive polices producing economic, political, and societal chaos and decay. We also see China as an aggressive enemy that will hasten our demise—concerns that are tangible. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has infiltrated Big Tech, business, education, healthcare, research, culture, and government at all levels; they do this to steal and to undermine our abilities to prosper.
In all of the hype and imposed fear for any real and perceived enemies, we consistently overlook reality, and especially concerning our competitions’ economic and cultural health. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, for example, most experts considered them a giant gas station with nukes. Yet the Democrats, playing on the old fears of them commie bastards, found a readymade boogeyman to attempt a takedown of their political enemies, both foreign and domestic. We now fear World War III.
It is apparent that the Biden Administration is instigating a new world calamity as they push Russia into a corner by all but fighting them on their borders.
But what has really changed from the perception that Russia is an overpriced gas station? Thus far, Russia has a humiliating defeat hanging over their heads which will not end in mushroom clouds. Putin isn’t rolling over Europe in this lifetime and he knows it. He is ruthless but not a madman; he is not going to push the red button to launch Armageddon on his way out. According to some, he is looking for a negotiated peace that is being rebuffed by the U.S.
But what about China?
Under President Trump, China policies were coherent and moving the U.S. into a cohesive front against Chinese aggression: deal from a position of strength by rebuilding the military with a focus in the South China Sea, reject China’s Belt and Road Initiative, address trade imbalances with the Chinese, and begin possible decoupling from Chinese manufacturing, among other issues. We never sought physical confrontation with the Chinese under the former president.
Under the deranged Biden Administration, passive-aggressive actions with no cohesive policy are sending mixed signals at a time of China’s growing internal turmoil. In light of apparent conflicts of interest between the Biden family and their financial entanglements in China, current U.S. policy is strange and baffling. The Biden Administration is poking the tiger just as they are poking the bear and this, like his domestic policy, is pushing the world further into chaos. Maybe that’s the goal; if so, congratulations Joe, mission almost accomplished.
China is in real trouble. It began the last century as a backward, agrarian nation, then turned to communism after Japanese occupation. As their efforts bogged down, Mao Zedong tried the Great Leap Forward in mid-century that was disastrous—at least 30 million dead from starvation is a pretty good indicator. Henry Kissinger threw Mao a lifeline by believing that a China in our back pocket would pressure the Soviets during the Cold War. These “opening” relations with the Chinese Communist Party climaxed as China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, months after the 9/11 attacks.
China has been treated with kid gloves since the “opening”. The world has given them developing nation status. As with a spoiled child getting caught, hand in the cookie jar, China knows they won’t be punished harshly so they pollute at will, incarcerate at will, and subjugate large swaths of their population for diabolical means—slave labor, of course, helps them further “develop”.
A Chip on our Shoulder
Biden pulled a head scratcher—which is now commonplace—in early October. The Department of Commerce issued new rules that cutoff China from advanced semiconductors which could be used in military and artificial intelligence applications. Experts claim this is a death knell for China’s semiconductor industry for it will deny the nation’s tech industry further access to American engineering and manufacturing expertise.
Jordan Schneider, a China technology analyst, stated in a Tweet that as a result:
Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, [October 13] paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage [to China] than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.
In other words, we just nuked China into the stone age in regard to semiconductor manufacturing. The primary question is: Did Biden just open the door for China to take Taiwan? Taiwan has the lion’s share of the worldwide semiconductor market with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) representing 54% of the market alone. TSMC and Samsung (South Korea) are the only companies that can manufacture the most advanced 5-nanometer chips.
In a story written by Mike Whitney, speculation that Biden is once again flirting with WWIII is apparent. “The new sanctions regime will likely inflict significant damage on China’s thriving technology industry while causing considerable harm to US partners who were not consulted on the matter.” He further states:
But while the announcement was a complete surprise, it does fit with the much more extensive list of hostile US actions towards China in the last few months. Some of these include:
1. Multiple US delegations (Nancy Pelosi and other sitting Congressmen) traveled to Taiwan to challenge the One-China policy that has been the cornerstone for normal relations between the two countries for the last 40 years.
2. Two US warships sail through strait, BBC
3. US-India maneuvers on the India-China border
4. The Biden Administration’s persistent determination to provide South Korea with a lethal missile defence system that can be used for offensive purposes and which threatens Chinese security
5. The relentless strengthening of an “anti-China” coalition
6. Two U.S. carrier groups conduct exercises in South China Sea
7. And, now–according to the Financial Times– The EU is being urged to rethink its China policy
This is coming at a time when China is experiencing multiple domestic issues that would, if left isolated, greatly hamper their world domination desires. However, provocation is going to ratchet up the pressure and China will become unpredictable.
The WuFlu
It is all but a foregone conclusion that China created a virus that was let loose upon an unsuspecting world. Intentional or not, the threat was overblown and our own acceptance of a corrupted Anthony Fauci as saint deliverer compounded the idiocy. China should be punished for their actions though it will never happen.
China played its part in the high-stakes drama with images of dead people in the streets and mass quarantine efforts—with one quarantine center collapsing ingloriously—in order to hammer home the “threat” of the disease. But Covid was useful: beyond palpable calamity in the outside world, the CCP turned the Covid fear inward as a means to suppress internal strife.
Covid Zero or Iron-fisted Crackdown?
Western media continue to insist that massive lockdowns are attempts to enforce a zero-Covid policy in China. As I wrote about Shanghai, the massive lockdowns have more to do with controlling mass unrest than in containing the overly-hyped Black Plague.
As residents scream from their high-rise windows, drones fly through the city [Shanghai] declaring “Please comply with covid restrictions. Control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open windows or sing.” [Emphasis mine]
In response the CCP has introduced a social credit system as a tool for repression. It is used to lockdown its citizens in the name of public health; however, at the beginning of the banking turmoil, citizens were shut off from public transportation if deemed they were traveling to withdraw funds from their imploding banks.
More than 70 cities—affecting 300 million Chinese—have been locked-down following the CCP’s policy of “eradicating” Covid. However, iron-fisted responses usually lead to unprecedented instability.
Banking Instability
With what might be mirroring the U.S. savings and loan scandals of the late 1980s, many of China’s banks are facing insolvency by corruption and economic slowdown. Citizens are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished housing projects. This has caused widespread panic and protests in over 80 Chinese cities. Tanks rolling in the streets amid sometimes violent (or fiery but mostly peaceful, depending upon one’s perspective) protests have been rumored.
Back in May 2022, there were already emerging signs that China’s economy was slowing significantly. These alarms were based upon Chinese data, and so one wouldn’t be amiss in suggesting it’s much worse than reported.
At the time of this writing, China has delayed releasing its third-quarter GDP data due on October 18th. With Xi making his glorious pronouncements of a China Century at the opening of the CCP’s 20th Congress, bad economic news would certainly dampen his self-declared greatness.
Population Bombed
Population control has been a priority for the CCP since the 1970s. The concern was that excess population would hamper their economic growth. In 1980, the one-child policy went into effect and was codified in their constitution in 1982. Just like Mao’s Great Leap Forward, it has been a disaster.
In rural/agrarian societies, families tend to be large. More children are required to work the fields and provide financial security nets for aging parents. With population control, parents value a male child more than a female, with future earning potential the primary driving factor. Chinese women were aborting female children at astounding rates. Many female babies were murdered immediately after birth so that the parents could try again for a boy.
In 2020 there was a male-to-female ratio bubble between birth (0-years-old) and 30-years-old of 113 to 100. The largest inequity is in the 15- to 19-year-olds with 116 boys to every 100 girls. In a population of about 1.4 billion, there are 723 million males to 689 million females, or 34 million more males—roughly the population of California. Couple that with rapid urbanization that provides greater economic freedom for women (with many choosing to remain single and childless) then, the male to female ratio effectively increases.
Yes, that will decrease population growth but from a sociological effect, there are now more males who won’t have a meaningful relationship with the opposite sex. This will breed instability as these teenagers become young men.
True Instability
Rumors of a military coup leading up to the 20th CCP Party Congress (that began October 16, 2022) were set off by “…large-scale cancellations of flights at [the] Beijing airport [with a] massive military build-up in Beijing”. There were even utterances that Xi had been arrested, all of which proved false.
And yet, a couple of days before the kick-off to the CCP Congress, protestors were able to place banners, smoke bombs, and a pre-recorded message being remotely broadcast from an overpass.
“Say no to Covid test, yes to food. No to lockdown, yes to freedom. No to lies, yes to dignity. No to cultural revolution, yes to reform. No to great leader, yes to vote. Don’t be a slave, be a citizen,” reads one banner.
“Go on strike, remove dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping,” reads the other.
Is China Closing?
Bill Hayton, a fellow at Chatham House, speculated that China is establishing a dual economic system: one, a closed internal system and another for contact with the outside world.
During the Eighties, the leader who oversaw China’s opening up to the world, Deng Xiaoping, is reputed to have said: “If you open a window for fresh air, you have to expect some flies to blow in.” Xi is fed up with the flies: he’s closing the windows.
The outcome will be a semi-isolated Chinese economy. De-foreignization, as Hayton says, is already happening as foreign companies in China are being pressured to hire Chinese-only management, displacing Westerners. Additionally, CCP-cells, or political commissars, are being placed into the Western companies thus having dual-management chains of command: one for the corporate office and one for the CCP in Beijing.
Further, the great “alliance” between Russia and China may be but an illusion.
After managing a strained smile and handshake for the cameras, President Xi Jinping walked away from Vladimir Putin with a face like stone. By most accounts, the recent meeting in Uzbekistan between the two leaders, who once spoke of each other as “best friends” and “bosom buddies,” was frosty.
A new “Great Wall” is being built along China’s border with Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar as well as parts of Mongolia. This is aimed at keeping the barbarians at the gates and the citizens in. The CCP sees continued exposure to outside forces as a direct threat to party stability going forward. Quite possibly this is a symptom of Xi’s growing paranoia.
China’s future foreign economic expansion will focus upon the developing world in Latin America, Africa, and Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative. In other words, China is decoupling from the developed nations, including Russia, and focusing more upon countries that have vast amounts of raw materials.
The Papered-over Tiger
Without diving too deeply into a potential war with China and its military strength, one should consider that its abilities are not what is being sold. China’s military has shrunk from around 4 million troops in size (1989) to about 2.5 million today though its spending has increased from $11 billion annually to over $250 billion during the same time period. (Compared with the U.S., it is miniscule. In 2021, the U.S. spent $801 billion for defense.) Their old strategy was to throw millions of soldiers at an invading army without regard to troop loss. Not anymore.
Facing new geopolitical realities, technology is key to their military strength; China has stolen or purchased most of that technology. Cutting off their semiconductor manufacturing capability at this time needlessly enflames tensions. We should be confrontational but not to the extent where it leaves no way for China to save face—there should always be given a backdoor in which to gracefully exit.
Also, the fact that their military resources have never been tested in a modern war—whereas, unfortunately, the U.S.’s have been—makes a war with China unpredictable. Armchair military analysts suggest that we’d be slaughtered in a war with the Red Menace. In reality, that truly cannot be known. Of course, our pretend president is trying his damnedest to disarm us with his Walmart-specials for Ukraine and his gift of unfathomable amounts of weaponry and technology left behind in Afghanistan. How ready are we to fight a ground war in Asia?
Is China Truly a Threat?
Dealing with a bully is always a threat. China has a puffed-up chest but there is only half the substance behind the ego. If the bluff is called, they will be compelled to fight.
They are an external and internal threat to us in exponential ways—probably in areas we do not even know exist. It’s believed that their cyberwar capabilities are tremendous and, in a war, the Chinese could shut down our electric grid as easily as flipping a switch. No one should ever expect to come out of a war with China as a true victor.
But there is another side that we should realize: even with all of our current instability, we still lead China in most metrics. Despite being kicked in the teeth, our economy is still much larger, our military better prepared, and our technology is still dominate. Victor Davis Hansen does a great job in a 2021 column of examining our strengths over China’s.
China has more internal problems that have evaded the corporate media attention, whether intentional or not. China’s ability to dominate the world, as has been their stated goal, may be but a pipe dream. The internal instability and external pressures among decoupling may lead China into a Lost Decade, like the Japanese in the 1980s, and so the question remains: Is Xi Jinping a megalomaniacal psychopath that would push the red button?